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Validation of Model Predictions of Alertness, Performance and Sleepiness
We are evaluating bio-mathematical models that were designed to predict alertness and performance in order to determine how well such models perform when compared to actual performance in a variety of scenarios. Although such models are widely used, it is unclear how well the models are able to predict fatigue levels during non-traditional shiftwork. For example, it is unclear whether the models will accurately predict performance levels when individuals are working on a Martian day length (24 hours, 39 minutes). In addition, it is unclear how well such models predict fatigue in operational domains, such as among airline pilots who experience jet lag, rapid schedule shifts, and where the use of countermeasures, such as caffeine, is prevalent. The result from the comparisons will then be used to gain a better understanding of the capabilities and limitations of each model and to provide guidance on confidence limits for the model predictions. |
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